Wheat – Monthly Analysis
Wheat has already added almost 35% since our October 2025 bottom call — but the larger technical statistics suggest this move may be only the beginning.
The current setup points to the possibility of much higher prices ahead, with another potential rally of 30–300% still on the table. No inflation, eh? Is everyone ready for bread, cereals, and wheat-linked food prices to double again if this roadmap starts to unfold?
This is not just a commodity chart anymore. Wheat sits at the intersection of agriculture, inflation expectations, food prices, and global macro risk. When technical signals on the larger frames start aligning with historical statistics, the move can develop much faster than most expect.
In this monthly Wheat technical analysis, we review the latest developments, assess the key candle and momentum signals, examine the long-term statistical setup, and outline the most probable paths that could shape Wheat’s next major move.
CANDLES
Wheat ended June with an impressive set of bullish signals, including a strong Bullish Engulfing on the semiannual frame. Momentum immediately continued, pushing the price higher. The weekly frame recorded a 50/100 WMA bullish cross and lifted the price above the 200 WMA. Numerous major and supporting technical signals also appeared across other frames.
The semiannual frame is the one that really caught our attention. An 8/20 EMA bullish cross was marginally recorded on the 6M frame. This signal is usually sticky and has little chance of being reversed by the end of 2026.
The statistics attached to this signal are impressive. All five previously recorded crosses led to significant rallies — a 100% historical occurrence — ranging from 34% to 301%, with an average gain of 131%. Considering the other signals and current momentum, a rally above the average would not be a surprise.
Overall, Wheat remains bullish until it signals otherwise.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Long Term
No changes in the long term forecast.
Mid Term
Back in August, we discussed a potential long-term bottom forming as a double Ending Diagonal. That bottom was formed, and the first impulse off the bottom is now minimally complete — wave (i) in green.
In this case, wave (iii) is likely underway. There is also a chance that the current wave is wave v of (i) in red, although the technicals provide better support for the green scenario.
From the perspective of the reaction to the Ending Diagonal, Wheat still has room for about 40% further advance.
SUMMARY:
Wheat remains bullish after a strong move from the October 2025 bottom call.
The bigger picture has improved materially, supported by major semiannual and weekly bullish signals, strong historical statistics, and a completed long-term bottoming structure.
The Elliott Wave setup also favors continued upside, with the green wave (iii) scenario carrying better odds for now.
Overall, Wheat remains bullish until it signals otherwise, with room for further upside if the current momentum continues.
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