Gasoline – Weekly Analysis (open article)
Gasoline futures rallied roughly 12% in July, and the move raises a much bigger question than simple summer-seasonality.
Is this just another seasonal squeeze at the pump — or is the gasoline market starting to price something more serious beneath the surface? With Strategic Petroleum Reserves continuing to draw down rapidly and setting new all-time lows every week, the popular hope for “lower gas prices” may be facing a difficult reality check.
That is exactly why this setup matters. Gasoline is not just a consumer headline — it is a direct inflation input, a pressure point for households, and often an early signal for broader energy-market stress. When prices begin to move sharply while inventories and long-term technical structures remain under pressure, the market may be warning that normalization is not as close as many expect.
In this public Gasoline Weekly Analysis, we revisit our April forecast, review the latest technical signals, and assess whether the recent pullback changes the broader outlook. The key question is whether the chart supports the idea of relief at the pump — or continues to point toward a much larger gasoline story still developing ahead.
Candles & TA
The candle department sent a mixed message this week. The 10-day frame clearly confirmed a bottom, the weekly closed with a bullish-neutral candle, while the daily frame ended Friday with a Dark Cloud Cover. This suggests that gasoline may need some short-term consolidation or a corrective pullback, while the mid- and long-term outlook remains bullish.
As we approach the end of the month, the monthly frame becomes especially important. As of now, RBOB would need to close roughly 15% lower or more to turn the current monthly candle into a bearish confirmation. Any close above the June low would likely remain bullish for the long-term outlook.
The most concerning signal, however, was recorded two weeks ago on the weekly frame. The 50/200 WMA golden cross is still alive and kicking, as shown on the chart below. The last time this cross occurred was in 2021, and it triggered a 110% rally in gasoline futures. If history repeats, we should be mentally prepared for approximately $7 per gallon or more, especially considering the retail markup over futures prices.
I plan to run full all-time gasoline statistics in the monthly report, so make sure you do not miss it.
Overall, gasoline is closer to neutral in the short and mid term, but remains firmly bullish long term.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
These two charts speak for themselves. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to hit new all-time lows every week and is rapidly approaching the estimated technical floor near 166 million barrels.
That is not a minor background detail — it is a structural issue for the gasoline market. Inventories can be released, headlines can be managed, and expectations for “lower gas prices” can be repeated, but the SPR cannot be printed by the Fed in a bailout.
This is why the current gasoline setup deserves serious attention. If futures continue to strengthen while the country’s emergency petroleum buffer keeps shrinking, the market may be signaling that the path toward sustained relief at the pump is far less certain than many want to believe.
Elliott Wave Structure
The long-term Elliott Wave structure remains unchanged from our April discussion. The latest pullback was likely wave ii in red, or possibly wave a of ii in purple.
The July 31 monthly print should help clarify which path is developing.
Summary
Gasoline remains technically bullish long term, even though the short- and mid-term picture has become more mixed.
The latest candle signals suggest that a consolidation or corrective pullback is possible after the recent July rally. However, the larger setup remains firmly supported unless the monthly frame delivers a major bearish surprise into the close. At this stage, RBOB would need a very sharp decline before the end of July to damage the long-term bullish structure.
The most important signal remains the 50/200 WMA golden cross on the weekly frame. The last time this event occurred, gasoline futures rallied about 110%. If a similar pattern develops again, the market may need to prepare for a much larger gasoline move than most currently expect.
The long-term Elliott Wave structure also remains unchanged from the April discussion. The latest pullback was likely wave ii in red, or possibly wave a of ii in purple, with the July 31 monthly close expected to provide more clarity.
The broader concern is not only technical. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to hit new all-time lows every week and is now approaching the estimated technical floor near 166 million barrels. That creates a structural risk, because the SPR cannot be printed by the Fed in a bailout.
Overall, gasoline is closer to neutral in the short and mid term, but remains firmly bullish long term. For Canadians, I think we should start mentally preparing for $3.00 CAD per liter. As for Europe, the UK, and Australia — let’s pretend they will be just fine.
