Bond Market – Monthly Analysis

The U.S. bond market made a critically important move on the final day of July. US10Y once again attempted to break above its 100-year moving average — the fourth such attempt in four years. Momentum and technical support remain strong across numerous long-term frames, and the odds of a continued move higher are substantial. If the annual candle closes above the purple line on December 31, it would mark an epic technical event — only the second in recorded history and the first in roughly 70 years. The potential consequences could be significant, possibly echoing the 1950s–1970s period, when rates eventually went parabolic. Anyone remember 15–17% term deposits? Ask your grandparents — they might. In this weekly Bond Market report, we evaluate the technical side of the market, focusing on what the yield curve, Treasury spreads, candles, momentum, and key levels are signaling now. The analysis remains purely technical, outlining…