Gold Weekly Analysis
In the not-so-distant past, the cohort of Gold bulls tried to wrestle with statistics—namely during the December–January run, when the warning appeared on the long-term frames. We remember how that ended. Those who listened to our alerts should still be on the right side of the Gold rollercoaster.
Last week, Gold rallied as if tomorrow were optional, and the optimism has been exceptional. Looking at the standalone candle signals, almost everything appears green: the daily is bullish, the weekly is bullish, and even the developing monthly structure looks constructive.
But there is one enormous caveat.
For three consecutive sessions, Gold traded above the +3 standard-deviation level. Historically, even a single such event has been extremely rare—roughly once every 3–4 years—and almost every occurrence was followed by an immediate pullback toward the mean or lower. Three consecutive occurrences take the current move into completely uncharted statistical territory. Using a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation based on Gold’s historical frequency, such a three-day sequence would be on the order of 1 in 700 million.
That deserves special attention.
Does this mean Gold must collapse? Not necessarily. A genuine breakout can temporarily overpower statistics. But when a market reaches an extreme that historically struggled to survive even for one session—and then repeats it three days in a row—ignoring the warning would be difficult.
In this weekly Gold Technical Analysis, we step away from the excitement and examine the signals that matter: candlestick structure, momentum, statistical extremes, key technical levels, and the long-term roadmap. We will assess whether Gold is entering an extraordinary momentum breakout—or whether the market is setting up another reminder that, sooner or later, statistics tend to collect their debt.
CANDLES and TA:
Indeed, Gold printed several strong bullish candles across the daily-to-weekly frames. If not for the statistical considerations discussed in the opening section, I would be inclined to view this move as a genuine bottom and the beginning of a major rally.
However, once we add the monthly bearish MACD crossover recorded in July, the broader technical and statistical picture becomes considerably more concerning. The current advance is more likely a corrective countertrend move than the beginning of a new long-term bullish leg.
The short- and mid-term structure remains bullish, but bearish odds are still active across both smaller and larger frames and could reassert themselves at any moment. In other words, the upside momentum is real, but so is the risk.
The July monthly analysis can be reviewed here: https://investingangles.com/fj1i
In July, I also discussed a potential path for Gold based on its technical similarities with Bitcoin. We will keep the Bitcoin chart in this analysis as a reminder of how such a structure could develop—and why the current rally should not yet be treated as a confirmed long-term reversal.
Annual Candles
In the annual analysis, we noted that Gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands—a condition that typically resolves through a return inside the range. That reversion process now appears to be underway.
As the bands continue to adjust lower, the updated targets point to a potential 35–50% decline from the peak, reflecting both the evolving structure and the revised technical expectations.
A move toward the annual 20 EMA, implying a drawdown of roughly 64%, should not be dismissed either. While such a decline may sound extreme, this is often how highly extended moves unwind—not necessarily through one dramatic collapse, but through a prolonged reversion process that gradually pulls price back toward its long-term technical mean.
ELLIOTT WAVES
This week’s move changed the primary count. Gold now has better odds of developing along the green path, which we outlined as a potential scenario at the beginning of July on the mid-term chart below.
The overall advance from the June low is unlikely to be impulsive, particularly considering the character of the initial wave and the triangle that appeared earlier in the cycle. At this stage, I am viewing the current move as a potential wave (a) of B.
Long Term
Looking at the all-time chart, I outlined both potential paths—the blue and green counts—back in February, when Gold was trading near $5,300.
The blue path would be the more favourable outcome, as it would suggest that the correction is complete and could be followed by a swift wave 5 advance. However, this scenario still needs to be proven. Given the technical damage recorded this year, Gold would need confirmed bullish candle and technical signals on at least the monthly—and potentially even larger—timeframes before we could declare a durable reversal.
SUMMARY
Gold is bullish in the short and mid term, but the larger picture is far less comfortable. The recent rally produced strong candle signals, yet the combination of an extreme three-day move above +3 standard deviations and the July monthly bearish MACD crossover keeps the long-term risk elevated.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the green path now carries better odds, with the advance from the June low more likely developing as wave (a) of B than as the start of a new impulsive rally. The more bullish blue path remains possible, but it still requires strong confirmation on the monthly and potentially larger frames.
Overall, Gold may continue higher in the near term, but the current move is still better treated as a potentially corrective advance until the long-term technical damage is convincingly repaired.
