Gold Weekly Analysis

In the not-so-distant past, the cohort of Gold bulls tried to wrestle with statistics—namely during the December–January run, when the warning appeared on the long-term frames. We remember how that ended. Those who listened to our alerts should still be on the right side of the Gold rollercoaster. Last week, Gold rallied as if tomorrow were optional, and the optimism has been exceptional. Looking at the standalone candle signals, almost everything appears green: the daily is bullish, the weekly is bullish, and even the developing monthly structure looks constructive. But there is one enormous caveat. For three consecutive sessions, Gold traded above the +3 standard-deviation level. Historically, even a single such event has been extremely rare—roughly once every 3–4 years—and almost every occurrence was followed by an immediate pullback toward the mean or lower. Three consecutive occurrences take the current move into completely uncharted statistical territory. Using a simple back-of-the-envelope…