Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis
Natural Gas has been slowly grinding lower since the bearish flag formation we outlined two weeks ago. The move has lacked urgency, but the broader bearish structure remains intact and the downside targets continue to stay in focus.
In this weekly Natural Gas Technical Analysis, we step back from the daily noise and examine the larger technical structure, the significance of the recent failed reversal attempts, and the key conditions that could determine the next major move. The focus is on whether Natty is approaching a meaningful bottom—or simply pausing before another leg lower.
For members, the full report includes updated long-term charts, critical support and resistance levels, and the primary and alternative scenarios currently shaping the Natural Gas outlook.
CANDLES
Natural Gas closed the week with mixed signals. The 10D and 15D frames formed bearish continuation candles, while the weekly developed an Inside Candle that has better odds of becoming a bottoming signal, provided it receives sufficient confirmation. The daily frame, meanwhile, printed a clean Bullish Engulfing.
Considering this combination, I think NG has a fair chance of closing Monday with a green candle. However, it could still test a new lower low during the session before recovering. If that scenario materializes, Monday could be quite volatile.
Overall, Natty is bullish in the short term and bearish in the long term. The mid-term outlook is neutral, and next week will be critical for determining which side gains control.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
Natty has been exceptionally precise in its recent decline, and that accuracy has kept all major Elliott Wave counts on the table.
As a reminder, a move to a new 2026 low currently carries better odds. Such a development would invalidate the potential green wave 3 count and force a significant revision of the long-term technical roadmap.
A move below the April low would invalidate the red count as well.
Classical Pattern – Flag
Natty bounced from the low, but the move remains corrective in character. This keeps higher odds for at least one more lower low and a test of the minimum bearish flag targets.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas enters next week with a mixed but still fragile technical picture. The short-term setup has improved after a clean daily Bullish Engulfing and a potentially constructive weekly Inside Candle, but the larger 10D and 15D frames continue to support the broader bearish trend.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the bounce from the recent low remains corrective, keeping higher odds for at least one more lower low and a test of the minimum bearish flag targets. A new 2026 low would materially alter the long-term roadmap by invalidating the green wave 3 scenario, while a break below the April low would invalidate the red count as well.
Overall, Natty is bullish in the short term, neutral in the mid term, and bearish in the long term. Next week should be critical in determining whether the developing weekly setup can establish a meaningful bottom—or whether the broader decline still has another leg to complete.
