Nasdaq – Monthly Analysis
After several bearish failures in July, Nasdaq closed the first week of August with exceptional strength and is now approaching a potential breakout from its two-month bullish flag.
The main focus of today’s analysis is the next target zone—and how different technical frameworks align around it. We will evaluate the developing structure from several angles to determine whether Nasdaq is preparing for another sustained leg higher or approaching an area where risk begins to rise.
In this weekly Nasdaq Technical Analysis, we examine the evolving price structure, Elliott Wave paths, momentum setup, key technical levels, and the influence of the Magnificent 7. The goal is to identify the most important signals and target areas before the broader market fully recognizes the next phase.
CANDLES & TA:
Nasdaq bears failed decisively in July. They came close to confirming a bearish reversal combination on the monthly frame, but lost control in the final days of the month. That failure was followed by a fierce bullish counterattack with very convincing results.
The weekly frame completed a Tower Bottom, while the daily and 2D frames recorded bullish 8/20 EMA crosses. As a result, all short- and mid-term frames have returned to a bullish stance.
Nasdaq is bullish now until it signals otherwise.
100/200 DMA Cross
In September 2025, Nasdaq recorded a bullish 100/200 DMA cross. At that time, I projected a statistical roadmap for the index, with the highest-probability target zone between $36,500 and $38,500 in Q1–Q2 2027.
Eleven months later, those targets remain intact. However, the strength of the recent advance suggests that the original timeline may be compressed, and Nasdaq could reach the projected zone earlier than initially expected.
Flag
As mentioned in the opening statement, Nasdaq is now positioned to complete a two-month bullish flag. A confirmed breakout would open the door to a substantial continuation move.
The most typical target zone for the post-flag rally is approximately $33,400–$37,250, with an ideal target near $35,000. This range also aligns well with the broader statistical roadmap discussed earlier, reinforcing the possibility that Nasdaq may reach its longer-term objectives faster than originally projected.
Elliott Waves
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Nasdaq may be starting wave (iii) of 3. This hypothesis still requires technical confirmation, and it may take several weeks for the supporting indicators to fully develop.
If confirmed, the move would align remarkably well with both the statistical roadmap and the bullish flag projections discussed above. The long-term Elliott Wave structure outlined back in May remains intact.
Magnificent 7
The Magnificent Seven closed their 10D candles on Friday with predominantly bullish signals. Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia remain bullish, while Alphabet and Meta appear to have capped their recent bearish moves and are now looking for bullish confirmation. Tesla is not yet out of the woods, and Apple stands out as the only member of the group with a Bearish Engulfing signal.
Overall, the group remains constructive and is expected to provide meaningful support as the broader market attempts to push toward new highs.
SUMMARY
Nasdaq has shifted decisively back to a bullish stance, and what makes the current setup especially compelling is the convergence of signals from several independent angles. The weekly Tower Bottom, fresh 8/20 EMA bullish crosses on the daily and 2D frames, the developing two-month bullish flag, the long-term statistical roadmap, and the Elliott Wave count are all pointing in broadly the same direction.
The projected post-flag target zone of approximately $33,400–$37,250, with an ideal target near $35,000, aligns well with the longer-term statistical targets outlined after the September 2025 100/200 DMA bullish cross. From an Elliott Wave perspective, Nasdaq may also be entering wave (iii) of 3, which would fit naturally with both projections if confirmed.
Leadership is constructive as well. The Magnificent Seven closed their 10D frames with predominantly bullish signals, while the Semiconductor Index, discussed yesterday, printed a powerful weekly Bullish Engulfing and has a fair chance to explore new all-time highs. With semiconductors representing a major share of Nasdaq-100 weight, that confirmation adds considerable strength to the broader NQ outlook.
Overall, the remarkable alignment between candles, moving averages, statistical projections, classical patterns, Elliott Wave structure, Mag 7 leadership, and semiconductors creates one of the more convincing bullish setups we have seen recently. Nasdaq remains bullish until it signals otherwise.
