Carry Trade – Weekly Analysis

It looks like USD/JPY may be getting ready to resume its long-term rally toward the 174 target we outlined nearly three years ago—even after the recent coordinated U.S.–Japan currency intervention at the end of July. In a market filled with noise, policy shifts, interventions, and constant speculation, the larger technical structure has continued to follow the same roadmap. In this USD/JPY Technical Analysis, we reassess the pair through major currency dynamics, candlestick and momentum signals, and long-term Elliott Wave structure. The key question now is whether the recent decline was merely another correction within the larger bullish trend—or the beginning of something more serious. We examine what keeps the 174 target alive, what could invalidate the bullish path, and what may shape the next major move. CANDLES After the intervention-driven drop, USD/JPY reclaimed two major technical supports—the 200 DMA and the 8 EMA. In other words, the pair is working…