Carry Trade – Weekly Analysis

Recent intervention—Japan deployed a record ¥15.4 trillion (about $98.7 billion) to support the yen, while the U.S. Treasury appears to have added roughly $500 million—has shaken the short-term technical structure. That is close to $100 billion thrown at the currency market. But the more important question is what, if anything, has changed in the mid- and long-term outlook. In this Carry Trade Weekly, we examine the latest USD/JPY candlestick signals, momentum structure, key support and resistance levels, and the short- and long-term Elliott Wave roadmaps. We also assess what the developing move could mean for the carry trade itself—and for markets that have become increasingly sensitive to sharp swings in the yen. The central question is becoming harder to ignore: is USD/JPY preparing to revisit levels not seen in decades—and if it does, how long can the carry trade remain calm before history starts knocking on the door again? CANDLES…