Bond Market – Weekly Analysis

The bond market picked a nice, round number—5.00%—to close the week. But that is mostly marketing. The far more interesting developments are happening under the hood, and that is where we will focus today. By the way, the very long-term chart has remained essentially unchanged for almost four years. Boring, eh? In this Bond Market Weekly Technical Analysis, we dig into the latest signals across U.S. Treasury yields, the yield curve, key spreads, moving-average structures, candlestick formations, and the long-term Elliott Wave roadmap. The goal is to look past the headlines and policy noise and focus on what the bond market itself is quietly signaling beneath the surface. And that message is becoming harder to ignore. Several technical warnings we have been tracking for months are beginning to line up, while the margin for a comfortable outcome appears to be shrinking. The recession signal is not fully confirmed yet, but…