SP500 – Emergency Update

After zooming out and comparing SPX with ES, the picture looks considerably more interesting than it did at first glance. The divergence between the cash index and futures, combined with stretched short-term conditions and conflicting candle signals, was enough to trigger this S&P 500 Emergency Technical Update. In this update, we focus on what the broader SPX/ES comparison is actually telling us, which signals deserve more weight, and whether the latest rally is building a sustainable breakout—or quietly setting up a reversal while most of the market is still looking the other way. ELLIOTT WAVE ENDING DIAGONAL Zooming out and carefully comparing SPX with ES led me to a rather uncomfortable conclusion: ES may be within days—possibly hours—of reacting to the completion of a very sizeable Ending Diagonal that has been developing since June. ES has already made a new ATH, so technically the diagonal could already be complete. The…