WEEKLY DIGEST: Sep 27,
This week was not exactly short on material. We ended up with 12 full analyses and a few dozen charts, moving from equities and commodities to bonds, currencies, volatility, and several long-term setups that may still be telling their story months from now.
Some charts whispered. Some waved red flags. A few practically climbed onto the desk and demanded attention. If you missed anything during the week, here is the whole collection in one place.
INDICES
S&P 500 – Gravity Lesson
The S&P 500 continues its experiment with gravity, and so far the experiment has been remarkably successful. But the latest candles and technical signals suggest the index may be approaching another important decision point.
Gravity can be ignored for a while. Cancelled permanently? That would be a new one.
Dow Jones – Weekly Analysis
The Dow is not quite singing the same song as some of its technology-heavy cousins. The latest weekly signals, moving averages, and broader structure continue to raise questions about the durability of the rally.
Not necessarily a fire alarm yet. But perhaps worth checking where the exits are.
Hang Seng: Typhoon Signal No. 10?
The Hang Seng roadmap we outlined back in May continues to track remarkably well. Now the long-term chart is flirting with something we have never seen before in the available history: a potential 100/200-month moving-average bearish crossover.
The typhoon is not officially here yet.
But somebody may want to secure the patio furniture.
STRATEGY & MACRO
Financial Sector – Weekly Analysis
Financials remain one of the market’s important confirmation mechanisms, and this week they had a few things to say.
Banks do not always lead the party, but when they stop dancing while everybody else is still celebrating, I tend to notice.
Bond Market – Weekly Analysis
The bond market remains one of the most important long-term stories we follow. Rates, TLT, historical moving averages, and the broader structure continue to support a roadmap that has been developing for years.
Bonds rarely make flashy headlines. They simply sit quietly in the corner and occasionally rearrange the entire financial system.
Dollar Index – Weekly Analysis
The Dollar Index remains technically fascinating. Several longer-term bullish developments continue to hold while the shorter frames keep trying to distract us with noise.
The greenback may not be sprinting yet, but it certainly has not packed its bags and gone home.
Carry Trade – Weekly Analysis
Carry trades are wonderfully boring — until suddenly they are the only thing everyone is talking about.
This week we revisited the structure behind one of the quieter but potentially important macro relationships. If those gears start slipping, the noise may travel considerably farther than the currency market.
Volatility – Weekly Analysis
And then there is volatility — the market’s smoke detector.
VIX may look reasonably calm on the surface, but several higher-time-frame signals and divergences remain worth watching. The useful thing about a smoke detector is that you generally want to hear it before you can smell the smoke.
COMMODITIES
Oil Weekly: One Flag Away From a Bigger Move
Oil continues to carry one of the more constructive commodity structures on our screens. The larger bullish roadmap remains intact, and one developing flag could be all that separates the current consolidation from a considerably larger move.
Sometimes the boring part of the chart is simply the market loading the spring.
Gold – Weekly Analysis
Gold continues to provide enough material for its own television series. Short-term rallies, bearish candles, Elliott Wave complications, moving-average battles — there is rarely a dull evening.
The bulls are still fighting, but the larger frames have been rather stingy with encouragement.
Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis
Natural Gas continues doing what Natural Gas does best: turning a relatively simple chart into an emotional support exercise for traders.
The latest candles and larger frames offer several clues about whether the recent move has genuine momentum — or whether NatGas is preparing another one of its famous plot twists.
EDUCATIONAL
When Three Black Crows Came to TELUS
Back in April 2025, a few buddies from TELUS asked what I thought about the stock. I opened the long-term chart and delivered my highly sophisticated conclusion: “Get out. Now.”
The reason was a rare Three Black Crows formation on the annual frame, supported by other technicals. TELUS is just the example here. The real story is why candlesticks — around four centuries old and still surviving — may know more than we sometimes give them credit for.
Twelve articles, a few dozen charts, and enough conflicting signals to keep us happily occupied for another week.
Candlesticks, Elliott Wave, classical patterns, statistics, moving averages, bonds, currencies, commodities, equities, volatility — every one of them offers a different piece of the same puzzle. Sometimes they line up beautifully. Sometimes the market throws half the pieces under the couch just to make sure we are paying attention.
Either way, we keep looking.
Because somewhere inside all that noise, the market is usually whispering what it wants to do next.
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