Carry Trade – Monthly Analysis

In late July and mid-September, two large interventions managed to shift the waves. But what about the candles? It seems modern policymakers may still need a crash course in candlestick engineering—because when timing is everything, moving price is only half the job. In this Carry Trade Monthly, we take a fresh look at USD/JPY, with particular attention to the monthly and quarterly signals across multiple timeframes. We’ll examine the latest candlestick developments, momentum shifts, critical support and resistance levels, and the Elliott Wave structures guiding both the short- and long-term outlook. The question is whether the interventions actually changed the trend—or merely bought time while the larger technical structure kept marching forward. CANDLES As a result of the interventions, both the monthly and quarterly frames formed bearish candles. However, because the moves were artificial, both candles recovered and significantly reduced their bearish odds while holding major support levels. They now…