WEEKLY DIGEST: Oct 4,
This Week at Investing Angles: 13 Analyses, One New Quarter, and Plenty to Digest
September is in the books, the third quarter has closed, and the charts suddenly have a lot more to say. This week we published 13 analyses, moving from the major US indices and volatility to bonds, currencies, commodities, and one particularly unhappy Happy Meal.
Monthly and quarterly closes tend to carry more weight than the daily noise, and several markets delivered signals worth watching well beyond next week. Some charts strengthened existing roadmaps. Others opened new technical doors. A few simply reminded us that the market has a rather dark sense of humor.
If you missed anything during the week, here is the full collection in one place.
Indices
S&P 500 — Weekly Analysis
The S&P 500 remains near an important technical crossroads. The larger structure still leaves room for the bulls, but the shorter frames are increasingly asking whether gravity is finally ready to participate.
The question is becoming less about whether a pullback can happen and more about what kind of pullback the market may be preparing.
Nasdaq — Monthly Analysis
Nasdaq entered the new month after another extraordinary stretch, but extraordinary markets have a habit of eventually becoming extraordinarily interesting.
The monthly structure remains the key guide. Momentum may still have fuel, but the technical altitude is getting difficult to ignore.
Dow Jones — Monthly Analysis
The Dow continues to tell a somewhat different story from its technology-heavy cousins. The long-term structure remains constructive in places, but the latest monthly signals suggest that complacency may not be the best strategy.
Three major indices, three slightly different messages. Markets rarely make it too easy.
Strategy & Macro
Volatility — Monthly Analysis
Volatility is still one of the charts we watch before looking for trouble elsewhere. The latest monthly close added another piece to the puzzle, and the setup deserves attention as October gets underway.
The smoke detector is not necessarily screaming. But it may have stopped sleeping.
Dollar Index — Monthly Analysis
The Dollar continues to build a technically interesting long-term structure. September added more evidence to the broader roadmap, while the shorter frames will determine how quickly that story develops.
Currencies rarely provide the most exciting headlines. They simply move underneath everything else.
Carry Trade — Monthly Analysis
Carry trades are wonderfully boring — until they are not.
The monthly close gives us another opportunity to check whether the machinery is still running smoothly or whether a few gears are beginning to slip. When this corner of the market gets noisy, the sound tends to travel.
Bond Market — Monthly Analysis
The bond market remains one of the most important long-term charts on our screen. Rates, moving averages, historical structures, and the larger technical roadmap continue to point toward developments with implications far beyond Treasuries themselves.
Bonds rarely demand attention. They simply sit quietly in the corner and occasionally rearrange the entire financial system.
Financial Sector — Monthly Analysis
Financials remain one of the market’s most useful confirmation mechanisms. Banks do not have to lead every rally, but their behavior can tell us a great deal about the health underneath the broader indices.
If the party continues, we would prefer the banking sector to keep dancing.
Commodities
Oil — Monthly Analysis
Oil closed September with several important longer-term signals still intact. The monthly structure continues to support the broader roadmap, while the shorter frames will tell us whether the next move starts immediately or needs a little more time in the garage.
The spring may still be loading.
Natural Gas — Monthly Analysis
Natural Gas continues to provide its usual combination of technical opportunity and emotional exercise.
The larger frames are becoming increasingly important, and the latest monthly close helps separate the bigger roadmap from the daily plot twists. With gas, there are always plot twists.
Gold — Monthly Analysis
Gold did not disappoint at the end of September. The monthly and quarterly closes delivered plenty of candlestick and technical material, while the shorter frames continue wrestling with repeated attempts to build a bottom.
Between Elliott Wave, the Head & Shoulders structure, and several bearish technical signals, the metal still has quite a story to finish.
Silver — Monthly Analysis
Silver may be the more dramatic sibling in the precious-metals family, and the latest long-term candles certainly did nothing to change that reputation.
The monthly structure deserves particular attention here. When silver decides to move, subtlety is rarely part of the plan.
Educational
McDonald’s: When the Happy Meal Turns Unhappy — Free Read
McDonald’s fell roughly 12% in September, which apparently means investors have discovered a healthier alternative to healthy McBurgers.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, however, the explanation is less mysterious: the long-term Ending Diagonal appears to be doing exactly what Ending Diagonals tend to do once they finish. Sometimes the educational examples arrive with fries.
Thirteen analyses, a new month, a new quarter, and enough technical material to keep us happily occupied for a while.
Candlesticks, Elliott Wave, moving averages, classical patterns, statistics, bonds, currencies, commodities, equities, volatility — each offers a different angle on the same market puzzle. Sometimes they disagree. Sometimes several completely different methods suddenly point toward the same destination.
Those are usually the moments worth paying attention to.
The market has opened a fresh chapter for October.
We’ll keep reading the footnotes.
Free articles: investingangles.substack.com
