WEEKLY DIGEST: Oct 11,
This Week at Investing Angles: 14 Analyses, Plenty of Signals, and a Few Uncomfortable Messages
This week the market seemed unusually talkative. Bonds had something to say. The dollar had something to say. Carry trades were sending messages, financials were trying to prove themselves, and several equity charts looked suspiciously like they had wandered a little too close to the edge of the cliff.
Altogether, we published 14 analyses covering indices, macro, commodities, the Magnificent 7, and one open semiconductor study that may deserve considerably more attention than its friendly title suggests.
Some charts whispered. A few raised their voices. Others apparently decided subtlety was overrated.
If you missed anything during the week, here is the full collection.
Indices
Russell: The Wile E. Coyote Moment
Russell may have reached one of those wonderful Wile E. Coyote moments when the feet are still running — but the ground underneath them has become something of a technicality.
The chart explores whether the smaller-cap universe is simply pausing or beginning to realize that gravity has been patiently waiting below.
Nasdaq — Weekly Analysis
Nasdaq remains one of the most important charts on the board, particularly with several of its supporting sectors beginning to flash increasingly interesting signals.
The question is no longer simply how high the index can climb. It is whether the internal structure still deserves the same confidence.
S&P 500 — Weekly Analysis
The S&P 500 continues to balance between a still-resilient larger structure and shorter-term signals that deserve respect.
Markets can ignore gravity for surprisingly long periods. Permanently cancelling it, however, would be a rather ambitious policy decision.
Strategy & Macro
Dollar Index — Weekly Analysis
The Dollar remains one of the key macro charts we follow because its moves rarely stay confined to currencies.
When the greenback starts making technical decisions, commodities, equities, bonds, and global liquidity usually find out eventually.
Baltic Dry Index — Monthly Analysis
The Baltic Dry Index does not attract the same headlines as the S&P or Nasdaq, but sometimes the quieter charts provide the more useful clues.
Shipping demand, global trade, and economic momentum all leave fingerprints here. And occasionally the freight market knows something before the television does.
USD/JPY: The Carry Trade Is Sending a Message
Carry trades are wonderfully boring when everything works.
USD/JPY, however, appears increasingly interested in making the subject less boring. When one of the world’s major funding mechanisms starts sending messages, we tend to read them carefully.
XLF: The Bounce That Still Has Something to Prove
Financials have bounced, but a bounce and a confirmed reversal are two very different animals.
The banking sector still has something to prove before we start handing out certificates of good health. Until then, XLF remains an important confirmation chart for the broader market.
US10Y: A Century of Rates, One Uncomfortable Conclusion
Sometimes a chart becomes more interesting when you zoom out.
And sometimes you zoom out a full century and immediately wish you had not.
The US10Y long-term structure puts today’s rate environment into historical perspective — and the conclusion is not exactly bedtime reading for bond bulls.
Commodities
Oil — Weekly Analysis
Oil remains one of the more technically interesting markets on our screen, with short-term developments sitting inside a much larger roadmap.
Energy rarely moves quietly forever. The only real question is how much patience the next move requires before it decides to announce itself.
Natural Gas — Weekly Analysis
Natural Gas continues its traditional role as both a commodity and an emotional-support exercise.
The larger structure remains the important part of the story, while the shorter frames continue providing enough plot twists to keep everyone awake.
Gold Weekly: Signs of Life, but Not Out of the Woods
Gold finally produced a few signals suggesting that the bulls may not be completely extinct.
But “showing signs of life” and “confirmed reversal” are still separated by several technical hurdles. The weekly structure is now becoming particularly important in deciding whether the recent bounce grows into something more meaningful.
Silver — Weekly Analysis
Silver continues to behave like gold’s more excitable sibling.
The weekly chart helps separate the larger structure from the daily drama, and with silver, that distinction tends to matter. Subtlety has never really been part of its job description.
Magnificent 7
Nvidia: And Then There Were Two
Nvidia has reached another technically important fork.
Two major paths remain on the table, and they lead to rather different destinations. The chart may soon decide which one deserves the front seat.
With NVDA carrying so much weight across the broader technology complex, this is not exactly an isolated family disagreement.
Educational
Semiconductors: An Election Gift Nobody Asked For? — Free Read
The semiconductor index may have developed its own election strategy.
The weekly chart has produced a Bearish Engulfing, the longer-term roadmap is beginning to stir, and the structure opens the door to a potentially substantial decline into the U.S. elections.
Considering how much weight semiconductors carry inside Nasdaq, this is one of those charts where the phrase “sector-specific issue” may prove optimistic.
Fourteen analyses, multiple markets, and more cross-currents than usual.
The most interesting weeks are often not the ones when every chart screams the same thing. They are the weeks when seemingly unrelated markets — bonds, currencies, carry trades, financials, semiconductors, commodities — begin quietly leaning in the same direction.
That does not guarantee the next move.
But when enough charts start whispering the same message, we tend to stop talking and listen.
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