This Week at Investing Angles – Part I

We are only halfway through assembling this week’s collection, and the market has already supplied enough material for a full weekend. Volatility is stirring, the Dollar keeps sending macro messages, energy refuses to behave quietly, and several equity charts appear increasingly determined to test investors’ sense of humor.

So while Part II is still cooking, here is the first batch of this week’s analyses. Some are routine updates. A couple are open reads. And a few charts have moved from “interesting” to “perhaps we should stop pretending not to notice.”

Indices

Nasdaq — Weekly Analysis

Nasdaq remains one of the charts carrying the most weight in the broader market story. The weekly structure now has to be viewed alongside increasingly uncomfortable developments underneath the surface.

When the generals are still standing but parts of the army begin disappearing into the bushes, it is usually worth checking the map.

NIKKEI: I Told You So — Open Read

NIKKEI gave us one of the cleaner long-term pattern stories we have followed: first the bullish flag, then the spectacular advance, and now a very different technical setup.

Sometimes “I told you so” is obnoxious. Sometimes it is simply what the chart ordered.

Semiconductors: The Election Gift Arrived Early — Open Read

A week after we warned that SOX could be preparing an uncomfortable “election gift,” the Semiconductor Index dropped roughly 11.6%.

The Rosoku Desk is now shaping something considerably uglier for October. If the monthly Bearish Engulfing confirms, the latest selloff may prove to be only the opening act. Chio-Chio-San has not even entered the stage yet.

Strategy & Macro

Volatility — Weekly Analysis

Volatility remains the market’s smoke detector — frequently ignored when quiet, suddenly very popular when something starts burning.

The latest weekly structure deserves attention because volatility rarely sends invitations before showing up.

Dollar Index — Weekly Analysis

The Dollar continues to sit at the center of several important macro relationships.

Currencies may not always provide the loudest chart in the room, but when the greenback starts moving decisively, equities, commodities, bonds, and global liquidity tend to notice sooner or later.

XLF — Weekly Analysis

Financials remain one of our favorite confirmation charts for the broader market.

Banks do not need to lead every rally. But when they begin looking tired while everyone else is still ordering champagne, I usually keep the receipt.

Commodities

Oil — Weekly Analysis

Oil continues to develop inside a much larger technical roadmap, and the shorter frames remain important for timing the next meaningful move.

Energy has spent enough time loading the spring. The question is whether the next release comes quietly — or removes a few ceiling tiles.

Natural Gas — Weekly Analysis

Natural Gas remains wonderfully consistent at being completely inconsistent.

The weekly structure helps us separate the larger roadmap from the daily emotional exercise, which is useful because gas has never met a straight line it could not turn into a plot twist.

And then there is poor Europe — or, more precisely, poor TTF. To borrow very loosely from Porfirio Díaz: “Poor Europe, so far from Henry Hub and so close to TTF.” With natural gas preparing its next act, European prices may once again discover that geography occasionally has a rather expensive sense of humor.

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That is Part I.

Eight analyses already, and we are not finished yet.

The interesting part this week is not any single chart. It is how many different corners of the market are beginning to develop stronger technical personalities at the same time — volatility, currencies, financials, energy, semiconductors, and the major indices.

Sometimes markets whisper.

This week, several of them appear to have found the volume control.

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