WEEKLY DIGEST Part I: Oct 24,
This Week at Investing Angles — Part I: The Charts Have Receipts
Old warnings are turning into price action, while several new ones are quietly joining the queue.
Some weeks are about making forecasts. This week was more about pulling old charts out of the drawer and saying, well… that escalated rather efficiently.
Silver reached territory that looked almost absurd months ago. Semiconductors turned an October warning into a 14% decline in two weeks. Shanghai continued lower after our September alert. META started following the less cheerful fork. Oil ignored another round of “relief” headlines. And somewhere in Washington, X suggested that perhaps we should follow the Fed. Cute.
So this week’s Part I is unusually large. Part II tomorrow will be considerably smaller. Consider this the main course.
PRECIOUS METALS
Silver – Weekly Analysis
Silver remains one of the most technically fascinating charts on the board.
The larger statistical framework we have been following continues to matter, especially now that price has moved far enough for some previously outrageous-looking downside estimates to become considerably less outrageous. The latest weekly review checks candles, momentum, and the longer-term structure — and also provides an interesting statistical parallel for another market later in this Digest.
Gold: The Bottom That Refuses to Confirm
Gold keeps trying to convince us that the bottom is in.
The chart keeps asking for identification.
There are constructive elements, but the larger bullish case still needs confirmation from both candles and Elliott Wave. Until the market produces a convincing impulsive structure, the bulls remain on probation.
US INDICES & VOLATILITY
Nasdaq – Weekly Analysis
Nasdaq has already moved materially lower since our recent warnings, and the latest weekly close did little to improve the mood.
The bigger concern is no longer simply the size of the current pullback. Several technical developments are beginning to raise questions about whether something larger may be unfolding underneath the surface.
Dow Jones – Weekly Analysis
The Dow is dealing with the same uncomfortable question from a slightly different angle: correction, consolidation, or the beginning of a larger move?
The weekly review weighs the latest candle structure, momentum and Elliott Wave paths. Recent stabilization deserves respect, but respect and trust are not the same thing.
Volatility – Weekly Analysis
VIX gave us an interesting warning with the September monthly close.
Since then, equity markets have become considerably less relaxed.
Volatility has an annoying habit of sitting quietly in the corner until everyone forgets it is there. We revisit whether the September signal has already delivered its message — or whether VIX still has something louder prepared.
CURRENCIES, RATES & THE FED
Dollar Index – Weekly Analysis
The Dollar woke up again.
Friday’s move added another piece to a larger bullish structure that we have been following for months. If the Greenback continues to strengthen, the consequences extend well beyond currencies: metals, equities, commodities and rates all get invited to the same party whether they want to attend or not.
USD/JPY: Carry Trade – Weekly
USD/JPY went a little overboard on Thursday and then produced a potentially bullish reversal setup on Friday.
If the reversal confirms, pressure on the Yen could return quickly — which makes the carry-trade roadmap worth another close look. This pair has a habit of becoming boring immediately before becoming very much not boring.
Follow the Fed? The Chart Got There First
X recently suggested that I follow the Federal Reserve.
Me? Follow the Fed?
Our long-term US10Y roadmap was published back in December 2022, built on more than a century of data, and has been pointing toward a very different secular rate environment ever since. The market has spent the last several years moving broadly along that path.
Perhaps one day X will suggest that the Fed follow us. I promise to remain humble. Mostly.
ENERGY
Oil Weekly Analysis
Oil continues to behave badly.
Badly, that is, if one has spent the last few months waiting for lower prices.
The weekly structure across WTI, Brent and the broader energy complex remains constructive, and the candles have yet to provide convincing evidence that the larger bullish move is finished.
WTI: Hormuz Reopened. Oil Forgot to Fall.
Hormuz reopened. More barrels returned. Diplomacy improved. Hormuz reopened again. Supply normalized. Crisis over. Oil should fall. Hormuz finally reopened.
As if it had ever really been closed.
Everybody can go home now.
WTI, unfortunately, did not get the memo. It is up roughly 33% since our August 6 call, while the larger Elliott Wave roadmap continues to point higher. Perhaps somebody should reopen Hormuz again.
GLOBAL INDICES
Shanghai: The September Warning Wasn’t a Joke
We warned about Shanghai on September 27.
Four weeks later, the index was already down roughly 4.5%, and the Head & Shoulders targets remained intact. More importantly, the larger monthly structure suggests that the first downside zone may be only a checkpoint.
Long-term bearish charts often look like science fiction until the market starts filming the movie.
ASX: Something Is Stirring Down Under
A growing pile of technical concerns finally persuaded us to dig deeper Down Under.
The Rosoku Desk produced bearish signals across several frames, moving averages are deteriorating, and a bearish flag/pennant points toward a possible 6–13% decline. But the really interesting piece is Elliott Wave: one possible interpretation suggests that ASX may have completed a huge Ending Diagonal that began back in 2022.
If that path confirms, the flag could be merely wave A of something considerably larger.
The kangaroo may be losing its bounce.
STOCKS & SEMICONDUCTORS
META: We Did Try to Warn You
Back in September, META was still enjoying a strong rally and the bullish path remained available.
But we also mapped the trapdoor.
A month later, the bearish fork is beginning to look considerably less theoretical. The larger target area remains below, and the key question is whether the decline develops quickly as an impulse or chooses the slower, more irritating diagonal route.
One hits with a hammer. The other makes you reconsider your life choices.
Semiconductors: The Election Gift Arrived Early
On October 10, we published “Semiconductors: An Election Gift Nobody Asked For?” and quietly suggested that SOX might be offering one of the last decent exits with relatively minor wounds.
Two weeks later, SOX was down roughly 14%.
Very efficient delivery. No wrapping paper, no ribbon, and apparently no return policy.
But the most interesting part is deeper. A statistical study we published five months ago produced representative decline zones around 28%, 43%, and 65%. Now Elliott Wave, using a completely different framework, is beginning to point toward a possible 50–62% retracement.
When two independent methods start wandering toward the same uncomfortable neighborhood, we pay attention.
That is Part I, and there is a common thread running through almost everything above.
Several warnings that once looked early, aggressive, or simply uncomfortable are now turning into actual price action. At the same time, new long-term signals are appearing across markets that have very little in common — Silver, Semiconductors, Shanghai, ASX, META, Nasdaq, the Dollar, rates and oil.
Sometimes the market gives us one clue.
This week it brought a folder.
Part II arrives tomorrow — considerably smaller, which may be a relief for both readers and the analyst.
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