Natural Gas – Daily Analysis

Natural Gas has apparently decided that subtlety is overrated. Dutch TTF is now up roughly 39% in October after our September 30 call that it could potentially double in Q4. So far, the chart is doing an almost suspiciously good job of following the script. Europe keeps pressing higher, and the move is becoming difficult to dismiss as just another short-lived burst. Then there is Natty (Henry Hub). Two days ago, we called a potential bottom and suggested that the contract switch could produce a gap-and-go. Natural Gas apparently heard only the first half and decided to overachieve. A roughly 15% gap is now in the book. That takes care of the “gap.” Now we find out what Natty thinks about the “go.” And this is where today’s setup becomes especially interesting. A violent gap can mark the beginning of a real directional shift—or simply create a dramatic opening that…