SP500 – Daily Analysis
In this must-read report, we take a structured, multi-angle look at the index — analyzing price action through candlestick patterns, technical indicators, and Elliott Wave structures to assess whether the move reflects a broader trend shift or remains within the boundaries of an ongoing setup.
As always, our analysis focuses on technical evidence across multiple time frames to provide a clear, objective view of the current market structure.
Exclusive analyses covering the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell, and select global indices are available for our Index Focus and Ultimate members.
CANDLES
The S&P 500 closed today with a potentially bearish candle that now awaits confirmation. While the larger time frames remain bullish, the short-term signal introduces caution.
Two key technical concerns remain unresolved: the monthly MACD bearish cross, which has yet to be negated, and a newly formed 100/200 DMA bearish cross now being recorded by futures. With this, both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have confirmed the crossover. Russell completed its cross back in mid-April—a signal many seem to have already dismissed.
At this point, the Nasdaq remains the only steadfast tin soldier, standing tall as the others show signs of technical strain. But if NQ joins with a similar bearish cross, it could be the final nail in the current rally’s structure.
Overall, the S&P 500 and other major indices are hovering near neutral, with direction hinging on how the market responds to today’s candle over the next few sessions.
S&P 500
All three counts remain on the table, but the odds for the green count diminished further with today’s action.
A break below the blue horizontal line $5528.78 (ES) would invalidate the potential green impulsive structure, leaving a diagonal as the only viable path for any continued advance. On the other hand, a move to a new all-time high would likely invalidate both the purple and red counts.
At the micro level (see below), there is a possibility that the final impulse of the wave up — originally expected to follow the purple structure — deviated and instead formed an ending diagonal. The first wave off the top yesterday was clearly impulsive. If an impulse of a larger degree begins to unfold over the next two days, it would likely signal the start of a larger corrective phase.
SUMMARY
SPX remains bullish in the mid-term unless clearly negated, but today’s daily closure introduced notable bearish uncertainty, supported by several strong technical signals. If these are confirmed over the next 1–2 days, the risk of technical damage extending to larger time frames increases.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the index may have completed an ending diagonal—often a precursor to sharp reversals. While the micro wave down has been impulsive so far, it remains too small at this stage to confirm a broader directional shift.
It’s also important to keep in mind that long-term technical conditions—such as the ongoing monthly MACD bearish cross and other structural indicators—still support the broader bear market scenario. These signals carry significant weight and are not easily reversed. Ideally, the market would counter them with sustained strength by the end of May.
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