His Majesty Gasoline: The Pump Shock Nobody Is Ready For
For years, I have focused on daily oil reports and largely overlooked gasoline futures on the NYMEX. But with markets turning turbulent and supply constraints becoming a serious risk, I decided to take a deeper look — running a full technical analysis on gasoline and extending it to potential pump prices across the U.S. and Canada.
The results tell a surprisingly compelling story, and what is developing here could catch many people off guard.
I. Statistical Warning
I will keep this section short and straightforward. Recent technical signals for gasoline have been strongly bullish, and the commodity continues to print stronger and stronger signals. I ran several statistical analyses on a series of recent events, using similar setups that have occurred only a handful of times since 1985 as the foundation.
To put it simply, gasoline may be entering a prolonged bull market, potentially longer than the one in 2020–2022, with the prospect of double-digit prices at the pump for regular grade.
II. Elliott Wave Structure
When I reviewed the gasoline charts, the Elliott Wave methodology helped reveal one of the cleanest and most well-structured formations, with highly classical Fibonacci ratios. The all-time chart suggests that gasoline has started wave 3 of III, with a target area of $6.60–8.00. As third waves tend to be extremely strong, gasoline could experience time compression, meaning the actual move could unfold much faster, possibly within quarters.
If gasoline follows the classical wave structure, we should expect a consolidation for wave 4, possibly very sharp, followed by an even stronger wave 5 of III, with a preliminary target in the $9.00–10.50 area. This development would likely take several years. Now, let’s look at the most immediate targets on the mid-term chart.
After completing a strong rally off the December lows, gasoline consolidated for about a month and likely completed a bullish flag. The next targeted move after this formation would point to the purple rectangle under a moderate scenario, or to the red rectangle under a stronger one.
Reaching the upper boundary of the red rectangle would triple the December base price. The current price has already doubled.
III. From Futures to the Pump
Building on the bullish flag and the projected move toward higher target zones, the next step is to translate futures pricing into what it means at the pump. Using a real-time reference helps anchor the estimates. Currently, Bellingham, WA, is around $4.65 per gallon, while Vancouver, Canada, is about 2.05 CAD per liter, implying a cross-border ratio of roughly 1.7x on a per-liter basis. This provides a reasonable framework for projecting prices in British Columbia relative to the U.S.
If gasoline futures reach $5.00 per gallon, adding a typical markup of $1.00–1.50 would place U.S. pump prices near $6.00–6.50 per gallon. Applying the current BC premium, this translates to approximately 2.70–2.95 CAD per liter in Vancouver and across much of British Columbia, depending on local taxes and distribution costs.
In a more extreme scenario, if gasoline futures extend toward $10.00, U.S. pump prices would likely land near $11.00–11.50 per gallon. Using the same cross-border relationship, this would imply prices in the range of roughly 4.90–5.30 CAD per liter in BC. That would represent a structural shift in fuel costs, far beyond anything seen in recent cycles.
It is worth noting that prices in Europe and the UK would likely be even more extreme due to higher taxation and structural costs. However, the primary focus of this study remains on NYMEX gasoline pricing and its direct transmission into North American retail markets.
IV. Summary — The Pump May Be the Next Shock
This gasoline forecast should not be viewed in isolation. It fits into the broader long-term energy thesis that Investing Angles began highlighting in the middle of 2025, when oil started to show major bullish structures before the broader market fully recognized the risk. Since then, the energy complex has continued to confirm that the move is not just a short-term spike, but potentially part of a much larger structural advance.
Gasoline now appears to be joining that same message. The statistical setup is rare, the Elliott Wave structure is unusually clean, and the pump-price projections are alarming. If NYMEX gasoline continues to follow the technical roadmap, the impact will not remain confined to charts. It will move directly into transportation costs, household budgets, business expenses, and inflation expectations.
The main warning is simple: gasoline may be entering a bull market that most drivers are not prepared for. The chart is already speaking. The pump may speak next.
Publications
Airplane Mode: Fuel Not Found (April 16)
Global Inflation Transmission Tracker : Introduction (April 17)
RYSTAD UPDATE — DAMAGE, DELAYS, AND THE NEXT PHASE OF TRANSMISSION (April 18)
The Aluminum Constraint — From Flow to Fracture (April 20)
The Sulfur Constraint (April 22)
The Architecture of a Global Economic Crisis:
Part 2: The Hidden Layer: Petrochemicals
Part 3: When It Reaches the Real Economy
Part 5: Financial System Impact
Part 6: Early Signals: Stress Already Visible
March 15: Energy Crises – Historical Scale (open article)
March 18: Strait of Hormuz Risk: How a Middle East War Could Trigger a Global Supply Shock
March 19: RAS LAFFAN: GLOBAL ENERGY SHOCK: Part 1
March 19: Dutch TTF – Technical Forecast
March 25: Who Blinks First? The Energy War Reshaping Markets
April 3: ABU DHABI: SYSTEM STRESS EXTENDS: Part 2
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