Natural Gas – Daily Analysis

Natty remains aligned with our projected mid-term path. In today’s analysis, we’ll assess whether any adjustments are warranted based on the latest signals and our criteria for a directional shift.
CANDLES

Today, NG failed again to establish a bottom on the daily frame. A bottom remains possible, but the odds are low; confirmation would require a decisive close above the August 12 high. Momentum reads are unclear, and the larger frames lean bearish.
Our recent statistical study still applies: the current move retains the potential for an additional 15–55% downside before it runs its course.
Natural Gas remains bearish long term until a compelling bullish formation emerges.
ELLIOTT WAVES
No changes to the outlook; just the refreshed chart.


Several technical factors support the view that this wave is either wave 3 or wave C of some degree. The purple alt iii target is derived from Fibonacci levels, while the blue rectangle represents a statistical estimate based on historical performance.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas remains bearish—near neutral in the short term, but more decisively bearish in the mid term.
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Happy Trading!