Oil – Weekly Analysis
In this update, we focus on the signals—multi-timeframe candles, momentum, and Elliott Wave structure. We’ll map the prevailing trend, identify key support/resistance, and outline the highest-probability paths for oil’s next major move. Miss the next setup and the cost could be higher.
CANDLES
Oil closed the week with a Bullish Engulfing and printed an Inside Up on the 3D frame. From a candlestick perspective it’s bullish, but the technical support isn’t there yet. The daily close on Friday was also weakly bullish, with a chance of flipping bearish depending on Monday’s move. At this point, the odds are slightly bullish, and the initial attempt still requires confirmation.
The monthly is tracking bearish for now, but that could change with a strong rally next week.
8/20 EMA Quarterly Cross
(from the Jul 18 analysis)
The 8/20 EMA bearish cross on the quarterly chart is on track for confirmation at the end of September—and historically, this signal has been anything but mild. With only five previous occurrences, each led to major declines ranging from 36% to 70%, with an average drawdown of 53%. If history rhymes, the statistical target for this move falls within the marked rectangle, with the average pointing to around $33.
This suggests the bear market in oil may persist for another 1–2 years. Tough news for oil investors—but potentially a tailwind for broader economic stability.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
The current wave up has been corrective so far. It may push the price higher, but at this point the odds favor oil making a new low.
Summary:
Oil remains bearish across the monthly and larger frames. However, the initial bullish signals on the weekly may change the short-term stance and even impact the monthly if oil continues its advance next week and gains technical support. The monthly closure will be very important next Friday.
Happy Trading!
