Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
Natty delivered a big bounce. Did the technicals stay healthy? We’ll review the prints, trend alignment, and momentum to see if this was impulsive or just a corrective pop. We’ll also preview the signals that NG will deliver in the next 2 days and their probabilities.
CANDLES
Natural Gas jumped hard today, printing green candles on the daily and 2D frames. There’s room for follow-through, but the move pushed multiple hourly frames into overbought, so a multi-day pause or rollback has higher odds. It’s also unclear how this stretch will affect the 15D and monthly closes with two days left. Despite the surge, short-term trends and technicals haven’t flipped bullish.
As noted yesterday, I remain cautious on a bullish turn. I want to see clear bullish signals on Friday on the monthly, 15D, and a few other frames first. Until then, I’m neutral and watching tomorrow’s print.
On the larger frames, Natural Gas stays bearish until a compelling bullish formation develops. Bulls scored on the rollover; now they need to sustain momentum into month-end.
MACD – 15-day
On August 7, Natty attempted a 15-day MACD bearish cross. The frame closes Thursday (correction: yesterday I said Friday), and the cross remains in place. If it doesn’t reverse tomorrow, NG bulls should prepare for a significant, long-term bear market. This would likely impact the monthly closure.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
Mid-term, NG may have minimally completed a wave B as either (a–b–c) or (w–x–y) (green), opening a chance for wave C to start. I’m cautious with this view because the bounce off the low was corrective, and the gap raises more questions than answers.
Natty crossed the critical $3.193 level, invalidating an impulsive move down. The red path can still finish as a diagonal: with wave iii shorter than wave i, wave v must be shorter than wave iii. Assuming the top of iv is in place, the max stretch for wave v is $2.319 (see chart below).
The structure is getting more complex. The next two sessions will likely be decisive for the candles and may clarify the EW counts.
SUMMARY:
I’m neutral on Natural Gas after the rollover’s big bounce. Thursday and Friday should normalize the technicals, define momentum, and potentially set the long-term outlook. That said, the real outcome is far from clear—there are too many viable paths on the table.
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Happy Trading!
