Dollar Index – Weekly Analysis

CANDLES :

The Dollar has been wringing the last drops from the bearish tube for six straight weeks. On the weekly, it stays neutral-bullish unless it closes below the purple line, $97.492. The 15D closure on Thursday echoed the same skew: the circled green is a Bullish Engulfing, the circled red is a counterattack that failed, and the resultant force tilts bullish. The daily is bearish, the monthly is still undecided.

Taken with the technicals, nothing changes in the broader read: short term remains bearish, while the mid-term frames are quietly building what could be a very significant bottom. Recall, August failed to negate July’s Bullish Engulfing—and hasn’t confirmed it either—so bullish progress is slow.

Technically, the weekly MACD bullish cross from late July continues to widen—a classic precursor to upside. Whether or not a marginal new low prints, the odds favor an advance, especially given the cross’s rare magnitude, the lowest in roughly 20 years. A clean Double Bottom would be the ideal shape.

MACD – Weekly

ELLIOTT WAVES
(no change in assessment, just refreshed the charts)

There are no changes to the long-term targets for the Dollar. The extended wave 4 appears complete, and the July monthly Bullish Engulfing candle now confirms what could be a major turning point. This formation may well mark the beginning of a sustained rally—one that aligns with the broader long-term bullish wave structure we’ve been tracking since the initial chart was published in November 2020.

Road Map

This consolidation has lasted too long to count as part of an impulsive wave. A new lower low is now the higher-probability outcome.

SUMMARY

Dollar continues to throw a highly convoluted candle mix. For students of structure, it’s a great case study.

The daily is bearish, while the weekly and 15D have failed to confirm a bear and lean higher. Consolidation has dragged on, tipping short-term odds toward a marginal new lower low; however, the late-July weekly MACD bullish cross, widening at a rare magnitude, keeps the mid/long-term path tilted higher. Overall: near-term weakness risk, then an upside resumption if supports hold.

On balance, the quarterly and larger frames still favor the bulls. If that outlook is going to change materially, the next major signal will most likely appear before the end of September.

Happy Trading!