Dollar Index – Quarterly Review
New month, fresh signals—and time to think about New Year gifts. We’ll reassess the mid- and long-term Dollar setup, decode what the latest prints imply for the next leg, and mark the updated lines in the sand—well ahead of the crowd.
CANDLES
The Dollar Index closed September with a clear message. Mid-month, DXY had a chance to confirm a bearish reversal on a Dark Cloud Cover, but bullish pressure prevailed and the month ended with a neutral candle—keeping the bullish odds seeded in July alive.
On the weekly frame into September 3, bears also had an opening, but the week finished as a bearish Harami, which still needs confirmation. The same applies to the 2D frame.
The quarterly closure was notable. Q3 found support at the 100-QMA and printed a potential bullish Harami—again, confirmation required. More importantly, a 50/200-QMA “golden cross” is looming. This is extremely rare; by approximation, a similar setup appeared around 1981, preceding a run toward 153, and again around 1997 ahead of a rally toward 113. The cross sits only a few basis points away and will likely occur in Q4.
Overall: the Dollar has flipped to neutral, awaiting a directional signal on the short- and mid-term frames. All recent candles require confirmation.
ELLIOTT WAVES
No changes to the Dollar’s long-term targets. Wave 5 may be starting within the broader long-term bullish wave structure we’ve been tracking since the initial chart was published in November 2020.
Road Map
Although the rebound was energetic, the index failed to form a convincing impulse up. This keeps another lower low on the table—possibly the final one to complete an Ending Diagonal.
SUMMARY
The Dollar neither confirmed nor rejected the bullish odds on multiple short- and mid-term frames, and it also failed to confirm bearish momentum on the monthly frame. DXY remains neutral, awaiting a decisive move. In the interim, another sharp drop followed by a brisk recovery is possible—it would satisfy several candle-combo developments, complete a diagonal, and help reset the wave count.
Long term, the Dollar leans bullish, and that momentum could get a strong boost if the 50/200 QMA “golden” cross is recorded on December 31—a New Year’s surprise for Dollar doomers.
Happy Trading!
DXY Annual Review:
https://investingangles.com/2023/12/30/dollar-index-annual-review-dxy-dxy-usd-forex-elliottwave-gold-silver/
