Oil – Daily Analysis
In this report, we’ll analyze the candlestick signals, review the key technical indicators, apply Fibonacci measurements, and place the structure within its Elliott Wave context to determine whether the mid-term path is still on track.
CANDLES
Oil did not make a decision today. The candle is neutral, barely holding above the 8 EMA support and keeping the bullish potential alive. As none of the larger frames closed today, momentum remains undetermined. An important 5D frame closes tomorrow, and oil needs about a 1.4% rally to avoid a bearish close there.
Overall: short and mid term — neutral, leaning bullish; long term — bearish, with a fair chance of flipping bullish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
The mid-term outlook remains unchanged. Oil is currently sitting in an inflection zone, awaiting a directional signal.
Last Wave
Oil carefully threaded today without breaking its potentially impulsive structure upward. As discussed in the weekly report, oil still needs to print a higher high before breaking below $59.135. If wave 1 in red completes roughly as charted, a full 1–5 sequence will be on the table next.
Summary:
(as discussed in the weekly)
Oil bulls have recently consolidated their efforts, and it shows across multiple frames from the daily to the 15D. There are several potentially bullish setups across these frames that currently have better bullish odds but are yet to be confirmed. If they materialize, oil could see a major lift—7–11% for the blue path and 10–15% or even 20% for the red.
From the EW perspective, oil remains at an inflection point, with roughly equal odds for the red and blue paths. Once waves 1 and 2 are formed, we should be able to better assess the probabilities for each.
Overall: short/mid term — neutral, leaning bullish, pending confirmation; long term — bearish with a risk of flipping bullish.
Happy Trading!
