Oil – Daily Analysis
In this report, we’ll analyze the candlestick signals, review the key technical indicators, apply Fibonacci measurements, and place the structure within its Elliott Wave context to determine whether the mid-term path is still on track.
CANDLES
Oil still needs to decide, although it made another small step toward confirming a bottom. Strong bullish candles on the daily and 2D frames, a fresh 8/20 EMA bullish cross, and the avoidance of a strong bearish close on the 5D frame all enhance the bullish odds. The overall stance has not changed.
Overall: short and mid term — neutral, leaning bullish; long term — bearish, with a fair chance of flipping bullish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
The mid-term outlook remains unchanged. Oil is currently sitting in an inflection zone, awaiting a directional signal. A potential impulse for wave 1 of iii is not complete yet.
Last Wave
Oil still needs to complete the final wave for a potential impulse 1. Let’s see if it happens overnight.
Summary:
(as discussed in the weekly, no change)
Oil bulls have recently consolidated their efforts, and it shows across multiple frames from the daily to the 15D. There are several potentially bullish setups across these frames that currently have better bullish odds but are yet to be confirmed. If they materialize, oil could see a major lift—7–11% for the blue path and 10–15% or even 20% for the red.
From the EW perspective, oil remains at an inflection point, with roughly equal odds for the red and blue paths. Once waves 1 and 2 are formed, we should be able to better assess the probabilities for each.
Overall: short/mid term — neutral, leaning bullish, pending confirmation; long term — bearish with a risk of flipping bullish.
Happy Trading!
