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Commodities

Oil – Daily Analysis

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Oil Open Articles Public Weekly
1401

In this report, we analyze the candlestick signals, review the key technical indicators, apply Fibonacci measurements, and place the structure within its Elliott Wave context to assess whether the mid-term path remains on track.

CANDLES

Oil made a strong bearish engulfing with solid technical support. A move lower has higher chances for tomorrow. If oil indeed moves lower, it would also form a bearish engulfing on the 2D frame, extending the bearish odds.

The weekly closure will be very important – at this point oil keeps all options open.

Overall: short term – bearish; mid term — neutral, leaning bullish; long term — bearish, with a fair chance of flipping bullish.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Mid Term

Oil did not form a clean impulse to start wave iii. I believe it still has a chance, but likely after a new lower low. Oil remains in an inflection zone, awaiting a directional signal.

Last Wave

Oil possibly extending a bullish flag. The current wave down looks impulsive so far and it could be wave c of (b), the final wave of the flag.

Summary:

Oil was not able to complete an impulse up and instead pulled back with a strong bearish signal. The chances for a decline tomorrow are significant, but at this point I would not forecast Friday. Let’s first see what kind of candle is formed on Thursday.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, oil remains at an inflection point, with roughly equal odds for the red and blue paths.

Overall: short term — bearish; mid term — neutral, leaning bullish, pending confirmation; long term — bearish, with a risk of flipping bullish.

Happy Trading!

Oil Open Articles Public Weekly
1401
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