Oil – Daily Analysis
In this report, we analyze the candlestick signals, review the key technical indicators, apply Fibonacci measurements, and place the structure within its Elliott Wave context to assess whether the mid-term path remains on track.
CANDLES
Following a Bearish Engulfing yesterday, oil completed the day with a bearish continuation candle and formed a Bearish Engulfing on the 2D frame. The odds for tomorrow are bearish.
The weekly closure remains open. Oil needs to close below the low of the green candle in order to flip the odds bearish. Any close above that level will be bullish or neutral.
Overall: short term — bearish; mid term — neutral, leaning bullish; long term — bearish, with a fair chance of flipping bullish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
No news in the EW department. Oil remains in an inflection zone, awaiting a directional signal.
Last Wave
Oil is possibly extending a bullish flag.
Summary:
Oil is bearish heading into the final day of the week. While the short-term odds are bearish, the mid-term (weekly) outlook is far from it. Oil would need to decline approximately 4.4% tomorrow to flip the odds bearish on the weekly frame. Any other outcome will be either neutral or bullish, depending on the closing level.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, oil remains at an inflection point, with roughly equal odds for the red and blue paths.
Overall: short term — bearish; mid term — neutral, leaning bullish, pending confirmation; long term — bearish, with a risk of flipping bullish.
Happy Trading!
