SP500 – Weekly Analysis
S&P 500 is now down over 7% from its ATH. The key question is how this decline compares to previous corrections, as the recent price action is sending a series of decisive signals that demand attention.
In this weekly report, we break down the latest technical developments across multiple time frames and compare them with the behavior of major global indices. Using candlestick structure, momentum indicators, and Elliott Wave context, we identify the most probable scenarios and the key levels that could define the market’s next move.
CANDLES
SPX shows no bullish intent in the latest weekly close. Following last week’s warning, the 8/20 EMA bearish cross has now formed on the weekly, while the daily has lost the 200 DMA. The monthly is tracking toward a strong bearish close, and larger time frames continue to reinforce the downside momentum.
Overall, SPX remains bearish across the short, mid, and long term until technical signals indicate otherwise.
MACD
In mid-February, we discussed the MACD momentum turning bearish up to the 10D frame. Since then, the negative momentum has expanded to the 26D frame—larger than the monthly—and continues to build steadily. At this point, the current correction no longer fits within the technical boundaries of the 2025 pullback and is increasingly resembling the structures seen in the 2022 or even the 2008 bear markets.
22-Day Frame – Candle Estimate
On March 6, SPX recorded a strong Bearish Engulfing on the 22D frame, and I provided an estimate based on historical evidence. Details can be viewed here: https://investingangles.com/r1i6. The estimate stands.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
The red scenario was invalidated on Friday with the break below the November low. The focus now shifts to tracking the green and purple scenarios.
Last Wave
Last week, we discussed that SPX likely entered wave 3 of some degree and warned of a sharp decline ahead. Based on Friday’s signals, the wave appears incomplete and has higher probability of extending further lower, broadly following the projected path on the chart.
SUMMARY
SPX has continued to follow the bearish path outlined in the previous report, with downside pressure intensifying across all major time frames. Since last week, key technical signals have confirmed further deterioration: the weekly has recorded an 8/20 EMA bearish cross, the daily has lost the 200 DMA, and MACD momentum has expanded into larger frames, now exceeding the monthly equivalent. The structure no longer resembles the sharp and contained correction of 2025 and is increasingly aligning with the downturns of 2022 or, possibly, 2008. At the same time, the current trajectory raises the risk of strong bearish monthly and quarterly closures if conditions do not improve in the coming days.
From a structural perspective, the decline continues to unfold as a developing wave 3 or wave C, with Friday’s signals indicating that the move is not yet complete. The path remains aligned with further downside, with typical targets still pointing lower and the risk of acceleration increasing. Unless bulls can deliver a strong and immediate reversal, the correction is evolving into a more prolonged and serious phase with broader implications.
