Nasdaq – Weekly Analysis
The Nasdaq has reached the heart of our first target zone — exactly where it was expected. The move is unfolding with precision, and the market is now at a point where the next step becomes critical.
If you’ve reviewed the Microsoft Weekly, you may already have a clue. But each chart tells its own story.
In this weekly review, we break down the index through candlestick behavior, trend structure, momentum dynamics, and Elliott Wave context to assess how the setup is evolving and which levels will confirm — or challenge — the current outlook.
CANDLES
Only a miracle can save the Nasdaq from closing bearish on the monthly and quarterly frames. In numbers, it would require a ~5.4% rally to fix the monthly and about 6% for the quarterly in the next two days — highly questionable at this stage.
The index closed with strong bearish continuation signals on both the daily and weekly frames and is now tracking toward a monthly top confirmation and a Bearish Engulfing on the quarterly. Several hourly frames are oversold and could trigger a bounce, but this has yet to expand to the daily and higher frames, which remain firmly bearish until signaled otherwise.
If NQ was clearly leading the downside in previous weeks, this week the rest of the indices have largely caught up and aligned — the weakness is no longer isolated.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
The mid term chart remains largely unchanged. The move this week likely completed a Head & Shoulders pattern, with the shoulders formed by the tops of iii and x in green. The setup points to a decline toward ~$21,300 or lower — the structure is starting to confirm the downside path.
A week ago, we discussed the loss of the 200 DMA and the 8/20-week EMA bearish cross. These signals were present during the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 corrections. This time is unlikely to be different — the current setup is pointing toward a deeper correction, more consistent with wave (2) in red rather than wave 4 in green.
Correction
The index has explored the entire target zone for wave (Y) in red and now appears ready for the next extension — a larger wave (Y/C), which has the potential to unfold as an impulse.
Worst Case Scenario
Early in February, we discussed the potential for a deep ~32% correction, aligning with Fibonacci ratios and the 2025 correction. That scenario remains on the back burner — but it has not been invalidated.
SUMMARY
Nasdaq remains under strong bearish pressure, closing the week with continuation signals on both the daily and weekly frames and moving closer to a potential top on the monthly and a strong bearish signal on the quarterly. The downside momentum continues to expand into the larger frames — the structure is aligning to the downside.
A short-term bounce to normalize the hourly frames is possible, but the mid- and long-term outlook remains firmly bearish until the wind changes.
