SP500 – Weekly Analysis

CANDLES

The S&P 500 remains deeply bearish, with momentum continuing to build to the downside. A freshly formed 100/200 DMA death cross and the loss of the 50-week MA support only reinforce this stance.

Unless the index rallies roughly 6% in the final two days, both the monthly and quarterly closures are set to be bearish — a scenario that would lock in the pressure across larger frames.

Overall, SPX remains bearish across the short, mid, and long term until technical signals indicate otherwise.

MACD

In mid-February, we discussed the MACD momentum turning bearish up to the 10D frame. Since then, the negative momentum has expanded to the 29D frame—larger than the monthly—and continues to build steadily. At this point, the current correction no longer fits within the technical boundaries of the 2025 pullback and is increasingly resembling the structures seen in the 2022 or even the 2008 bear markets.

22-Day Frame – Candle Estimate

On March 6, SPX recorded a strong Bearish Engulfing on the 22D frame, and I provided an estimate based on historical evidence. Details can be viewed here: https://investingangles.com/r1i6. The estimate stands.

Elliott Waves

Back in June 2025, I introduced this long-term outlook, projecting the developing wave to end between $6870–7770 (ES futures). The move off the 2025 low likely completed at $7043, and the index is now trending lower.

A break below $6166.50 (another ~4% down) would likely lock in the structure that has been developing since October 2022, with the current move treated as wave 4. This would open a very wide corrective range between $6166.50 and $4808.25 — roughly a 31% decline.

The $4808.25 level remains extremely important, as discussed back in June 2025. A touch or break of this level would suggest that the index is working on a much larger correction, potentially wave (2) in red, with a path toward the 2020 lows.

While this red scenario is still premature, it is a risk that should not be ignored — the structure is starting to open that door.

Mid Term

I am still tracking both the green and purple counts on the mid-term chart. However, considering the long-term structure discussed above, a break below $6166.50 will open the path for the blue count, which will then become the primary scenario.

Once we have a signal in place, the mid-term scenario will be updated to match the colors of the long-term chart.

The index is dangerously close to making a big move.

Last Wave

On Friday, SPY precisely reached the wave 3 target of $633 outlined in mid-March. However, based on several technicals, wave 3 may still extend lower toward the next Fibonacci level.

At the same time, multiple short-term frames are oversold, and a bounce early next week could mark the completion of either wave 3 or wave iii of 3.

SUMMARY

The S&P 500 continues to follow the bearish path outlined in previous reports, with downside pressure intensifying across all major time frames. Since last week, key technical signals have confirmed further deterioration: the weekly has confirmed an 8/20 EMA bearish cross, the daily has formed a 100/200 DMA death cross, and MACD momentum has expanded into larger frames, now exceeding the monthly equivalent. The structure no longer resembles the sharp and contained correction of 2025 and is increasingly aligning with the downturns of 2022, 2008, or—based on speed—2020.

Unless the index rallies roughly 6% in the final two days of March, a highly improbable move at this stage, both the monthly and quarterly are set to close with strong bearish signals.

From a structural perspective, the index is now dangerously close to the $6166.50 level (only ~4% above). A break below would mark a transition of the current move into a larger-degree wave, opening a potential path toward a ~31% decline or more within this correction. Unless bulls deliver a strong and immediate reversal, the market is shifting into a more prolonged and serious phase—with broader implications.

Time is becoming a factor. There are only two trading days left.