Carry Trade – Monthly Analysis

Isn’t it remarkable that our long-term USD/JPY outlook has remained unchanged since November 2023? In a market full of noise, interventions, policy shifts, and endless speculation, the larger technical structure has continued to follow the same roadmap. In this analysis, we reassess USD/JPY through the lens of major currency dynamics, technical signals, and long-term structure to determine whether the bullish path still holds, and what could shape the pair’s next major move. CANDLES Again, no surprises in May. USD/JPY fully recovered its April weakness and is now signaling continued strength. All tracked frames remain bullish. ELLIOTT WAVES The long-term targets for USD/JPY remain intact. The pair may have completed waves i and ii of 5 and started wave iii. A little higher, and we will be tracking levels not seen since 1986. Summary USD/JPY remains firmly bullish, and the long-term carry trade thesis remains intact. May delivered no major surprises:…