Carry Trade – Weekly Analysis

USD/JPY is now trading at levels not seen since 1986, and this week it recorded several signals that require close attention. Is this the final exhaustion move before the Yen begins to reclaim control — or was the entire advance only a warm-up before the next leg higher? In a market full of noise, interventions, policy shifts, and endless speculation, the larger technical structure has continued to follow the same roadmap. In this analysis, we reassess USD/JPY through major currency dynamics, technical signals, and long-term structure to determine whether the bullish path still holds, what could invalidate it, and what may shape the pair’s next major move. CANDLES There is a major event to watch on June 30. If USD/JPY closes June above the April high, it would be a long-term bullish signal, likely supporting continued upside for several more months. However, a failure would be bearish on at least…