Carry Trade – Weekly Analysis

After a significant and rare coordinated U.S.–Japan currency intervention at the end of July, USD/JPY dropped sharply before beginning to recover. Japanese and U.S. authorities subsequently confirmed the joint action, validating that the late-July move was intervention-driven rather than ordinary market volatility. Now that USD/JPY has bounced from the intervention-driven decline, the key question is whether the event materially changed the pair’s mid- and long-term structure—or merely interrupted the existing trend. In a market full of noise, interventions, policy shifts, and constant speculation, the larger technical structure has continued to follow the same roadmap. In this USD/JPY Technical Analysis, we reassess the pair through major currency dynamics, candlestick and momentum signals, and long-term Elliott Wave structure to determine whether the broader bullish path remains intact, what could invalidate it, and what may shape the next major move. CANDLES After the intervention-driven drop, USD/JPY attempted to stabilize. The pair recovered toward…