Bond Market – Weekly Analysis

For several months, the bond market has been quietly writing a warning that few wanted to read. The signals were there, the roadmap was there, and the recessionary implications were becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss. Now, that warning may be approaching its final chapter. The 10Y–2Y spread is again leaning toward the path we have tracked for more than a year. What once looked like a distant technical possibility is moving dangerously close to confirmation. If the remaining barriers give way, the market may no longer be debating whether recession risk is rising—the bond market may simply be telling us that the clock has already started. In this Bond Market Weekly, we examine the latest signals across Treasury yields, the yield curve, key spreads, moving-average structures, candlestick formations, and the long-term Elliott Wave roadmap. The focus is not on headlines, promises, or policy narratives, but on what the bond market…