US10Y: A Century of Rates, One Uncomfortable Conclusion

The bond market has been following the larger roadmap we outlined almost four years ago with almost uncomfortable discipline. This week, though, I want to go back to a study we published nearly two years ago—one that started as a simple look at long-term support for the TLT decline and somehow turned into a century-scale Elliott Wave puzzle. The chart is inverted, which makes the structure easier to read. And once viewed that way, the last 100+ years begin to tell a very different story: one long impulsive era, followed by what may be a massive corrective structure that ended in an Ending Diagonal. If that interpretation is even close to correct, the implications for US10Y are not measured in a few basis points. I still have not seen anything remotely similar to this thesis elsewhere, which is exactly why it is worth revisiting now. Two years later, the market…